Warehouse Royalty

Canada approves a new ALS drug ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌
June 14, 2022 Read in Browser

TOGETHER WITH

Policy Genius

Good morning.

During a brutal market selloff on Monday, every single one of the 504 stocks on the S&P 500 index were simultaneously down at one point. Only five managed to eke out gains by the end of the day, and among them were McDonald's and Dominos — at least we know where traders went to pick up a stress meal.

Morning Brief

Prologis is creating the world's largest warehouse network.

Canada approved a new ALS drug that has advocates excited — its path in the US is unclear.

Squid Game was renewed for a second season and it sent one stock soaring, but not the one you're thinking of.

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Real Estate

Prologis to Acquire Duke Realty in $26 Billion Deal

While the e-commerce industry has cooled and faces strong headwinds, one player is keeping the faith. Or, should we say, keeping the space.

 

On Monday, real estate giant Prologis agreed to acquire Duke Realty in an all-stock deal valued at $26 billion, creating the world's largest warehouse operation. For Prologis, which uses its warehouse space to help store, process, and ship online orders for retailers, it's a big bet that the world is simply taking a brief coffee break from its ceaseless online shopping spree.

Realty Check

The high times of peak-pandemic life have ended for e-commerce operators. Look no further than Amazon, which posted its first quarterly loss in seven years this April and even admitted it overbuilt its physical operations to compensate for soaring demand during lockdowns. Its gloomy outlook — headlined by a goal to shed at least 10 million square feet of warehouse space — sent shockwaves through the shipping logistics industry, with shares of Prologis and Duke down 30% and 24% respectively this year.

 

For Prologis — which counts Amazon, FedEx, and Home Depot as major clients — this is a case of opportunity in crisis. A cashless deal to beef up its business with Duke, amid a broad market downturn, is one welcome order fulfillment:

Prologis already owned one billion square feet of industrial facilities across the globe, and its acquisition of Duke — which had a $19.1 billion market cap as of Friday — will add another 160 million square feet.

The acquisition will include high-value property in 19 key markets, including Chicago, Dallas, Atlanta, South Florida, New Jersey, and Southern California.

The deal is expected to close in the fourth quarter, according to CNBC, with Duke shareholders receiving 0.475x of a Prologis share for every one of their Duke shares. Prologis shares closed down 7.5%, while Duke shares were up 1% at market close on Monday.

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Healthcare

Canada Greenlights ALS Drug As US Regulators Face Pressure During Review

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is one of the most challenging diseases in the world to treat. Its cause is still a mystery to doctors and ALS' unforgiving progression — which sees a breakdown of nerve cells in the brain and spinal cord — leads to severe disability and death.

 

On Monday, there was a glimmer of hope for some. Canadian health regulators approved a new treatment for ALS for the first time since 2018. But the drug faces an uncertain path down south.

Testing Time

Only two drugs have been approved in the United States to treat ALS, which affects over 16,000 Americans and about 3,000 in Canada. Neither of them offers a cure. That can also be said for Cambridge, MA-based Amylyx Pharmaceuticals' Albrioza. The drug combines two separate medicines working to slow, though not stop, ALS from destroying the motor neurons in patients.

 

Albrioza has been through one successful trial, but the FDA typically requires two for approval. Health Canada's decision was conditional upon results from another trial, expected in 2024. The FDA allowed Amylyx to apply early, leading to a tense buildup for a decision expected in late September:

A study of 137 ALS patients published in The New England Journal of Medicine in 2020 found patients on a five-and-a-half month Amylyx treatment plan declined 25% slower on average than those given placebos. ALS patients and advocates have cited the study and additional research, which estimated patients taking the drug during the trial lived a median of 10.6 months longer than those who received placebos, to argue that time is not an option for them.

But the study's authors concluded "longer and larger trials are necessary." And, in a 6-4 vote, a panel of neuroscience experts advising the FDA declined to endorse the treatment for approval, citing the need for more testing.

The FDA usually, though not always, follows the recommendations of its expert advisors. Last year, the regulator approved the controversial Alzheimer's drug aducanumab against a panel recommendation — once touted as a potential multibillion-dollar treatment, the drug became a fiscal disaster for Biogen, which reported just $1 million in sales in the final quarter of 2021.


Growth Prospects: According to analytics company GlobalData, the ALS market in the USA, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, Japan, and Canada was worth $282 million in 2019. It is expected to reach $1 billion by 2029.

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Streaming

A "Squid Game" Stock Jumped 24% on Renewal of the Hit Netflix Show

On the wildly popular Netflix survival drama Squid Game, characters risk life and limb in a series of violent trials overseen by an enigmatic syndicate.

 

On Monday, the struggling streaming giant announced a second season of the show — ironically, though not surprisingly, the prospect of more death-filled mayhem is breathing life into one stock closely aligned with the series. Dramatic twist: it's not Netflix.

King of the K-Wave

South Korea is a heated battleground for streaming services for two reasons. First, South Koreans love locally produced content — within Korea, 70% of premium video consumption is of domestic shows, while US content captures just 14%, according to research firm Media Partners Asia. Second, the rest of the world loves Korean content, too — see boy band BTS, the world's best-selling musical act for two years running, and 2020 Oscar Best Picture winner Parasite.

 

Squid Game, which cost Netflix $21.4 million to produce, achieved international phenomenon status upon release last September. Internal Netflix documents seen by Bloomberg suggest the show, viewed by over 142 million households, generated $890 million in "impact value" — a metric Netflix uses to calculate how much a show was worth to the company. So renewing the series seems obvious, the biggest beneficiary less so:

Shares in Bucket Studio, which holds a stake in the agency that represents Squid Game star Lee Jung-jae, rose 24% in Seoul on Monday, as Asian stocks were hit by huge selloffs — South Korea's Kospi index fell 3.3%.

Netflix, meanwhile, tumbled 7% back home on the NYSE.

Netflix is South Korea's leading streamer, with 8.4 million subscribers as of March, more than double second-place Wave's 3.4 million. Disney+ has 1.2 million subscribers and has launched seven Korean shows, while Apple, Paramount, and HBO Max are all relatively new entrants.


Reversal of Fortune: Netflix, already down 70% this year, projects to lose 2 million subscribers in the second quarter, meaning its next financial statement could feature more casualties than Squid Game.

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Extra Upside

Sonos has been accidentally shipping extra speakers to customers, and charging them for it… now the company wants them back.

We're number two! Germany has fallen behind China as the world's biggest exporter of Russian energy.

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Just For Fun

Alternative to expensive airfare.

 

Long-jumper.

Written by Sean Craig and Brian Boyle.
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