Liftoff

May 16, 2022
TOGETHER WITH
Domain Money
Good Monday morning.

Senior bankers at Goldman Sachs have been given the right to take an unlimited number of vacation days, according to an internal company memo. The new freedom comes a month after the company's non-management-level employees learned that, beginning in 2023, their unused vacation days won't be rolling over to the next year.

Well, at least they still get free breakfast and lunch — oh, wait, that pandemic perk was scrapped last month. OK, well, at least they still get free car rides to work — nope, also gone. Well, at least they get free access to the company gym — alas, even that is gone. Does anyone have a spare violin?
Morning Brief
India, the world’s backup plan for wheat imports after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, is banning wheat exports.
Cathie Wood is keeping the faith in disruptive innovation. Investors are on board.
Budget airlines undercut industry mainstays as inflation racks the travel sector.
Global Economy
As India Bans Wheat Exports, Global Food Supplies Are In For a Rough Ride
When Russia, the world’s largest exporter of wheat, attacked Ukraine, the world’s fifth-largest exporter of wheat, the global food supply chain had a backup plan in place. That plan just fell through.

Over the weekend, India, the world’s second-largest producer of wheat, behind China, announced it was banning wheat exports. Already there is fear of growing hunger worldwide. Now, expect even higher food prices.
Separate the Wheat from the Inflation Graph
When exports from the Black Sea region plummeted after Russia invaded Ukraine in February, India’s government helped calm markets by promising to ship a record 10 million tons of wheat this year. India also has 10% of the world’s grain reserves, according to the US Department of Agriculture, and that surplus was seen as key to making up for global supply shortages.

And yet, starting in mid-March, a brutal heat wave ruined a large share of this year’s crop, casting doubt on India’s ability to produce the 111 million tons of wheat the government forecasted for 2022. Some wheat dealers now expect 100 million tons or less, forcing the country to shift its focus inward:
India subsidizes farmers by setting minimum prices for some crops. Yet with wheat prices at record highs, up to 25,000 rupees or $323 per metric ton, farmers hardly need a price floor of 20,150 rupees. Banning exports is the government’s way of trying to cool local prices.
That could put pressure on some countries’ already high food costs. Last month — not yet factoring in India’s export ban — The World Bank forecasted wheat prices would rise to a record $450 per metric ton for 2022, a 42% increase over last year. India said its decision was based on soaring international prices, which put its own food security at risk: in April, food inflation rose by 8.3% in India.
“We should keep a surplus, given the climatic aberrations and food security concerns,” Devinder Sharma, an agricultural policy expert, told The Washington Post. “We have such a big population to take care of.”

What About Us? Several low-income countries, notably in Africa, depend heavily on India’s wheat supply. On Sunday, New Delhi moved to ease concerns by clarifying that exports to countries of "genuine needs" — as well as exports for which letters of credit are already issued — will continue.

Trading Places: Trade protectionism was already inflaming food prices. Last month, Indonesia banned the export of palm oil, the most traded vegetable oil in the world. Together with Russian and Ukrainian sunflower oil, that means over 40% of the world’s vegetable oil market has been locked down.
Investing
Cathie Wood is Sticking With Innovation and Inflows Keep Coming
Last week was one of the most dramatic for markets in recent history. Turmoil across stocks and crypto dealt more of a wallop to most traders’ minds than a half marathon would’ve done to their desk-wedded lungs.

One big Wall Street name, however, is still breathing easy. ARK CEO Cathie Wood, one of the most prominent investors in tech through her high-profile ARK Innovation ETF, has been buying all the way down. And backers are still pouring in.
What Goes Down Might Come Up
Wood founded ARK to focus solely on “disruptive innovation,” aka tech-focused firms with high growth potential. That’s led to sparkling returns in the past, such as when the ETF surged 152% in 2020, but results have been less spectacular since the pile-on of global economic uncertainty. ARK, however, is keeping a steely resolve and doubling down on stories it believes in.

The latest example of such a narrative is Coinbase. America’s largest cryptocurrency exchange had a brutal week after its results fell short of expectations and the company got swept up in a global rout of digital-currency assets. As Coinbase’s stock plunged 26%, what did ARK’s $7.8 billion ETF do? It used the opportunity to boost its holdings by 860,000 shares. Wood’s unyielding commitment to her playbook has earned her a loyal fan base:
“That’s attractive to a certain segment of investors,” Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, told Bloomberg. “The benefit of Cathie Wood not wavering from her strategy during this brutal downturn is that I think it will help the longer-term viability of ARK.”
Despite a 10% drop on Wednesday, its third-worst ever, ARK posted positive inflows of $45 million. The ETF’s net inflows are over $1.5 billion this year, despite the fund being down 61% — a sign that investors still see long-term value in a portfolio of disruptive companies, as curated by Wood.
Trading app Robinhood, one of ARK’s most high-profile bets, surged 25% Friday after another long-term optimist, cryptocurrency billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried, revealed a major stake. ARK jumped 12% Friday, a day after it went up 5%.

Backup Chorus: Other big names share ARK’s long-term optimism. “We know that company managements all over the world are going to continue to invest in innovation just to survive and also to take market share,” Katie Koch, chief investment officer for public equities at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, told Bloomberg. Koch cited Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, who reminded investors last month that, when it comes to tech, he doesn’t especially concern himself with the short term because “as a percentage of GDP, tech spend is, on a secular basis by the end of the decade, going to double.”
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Travel
Budget Airlines Soar Amid High Travel Demand
These days, more and more travelers across the country are channeling their inner Lenny Kravitz, who, in a particularly enthusiastic way, once sang “I want to get away, I want to fly away.”

Even as inflationary forces jolt the airline industry, heading into the first summer firmly belonging to the post-vaccine era, travel demand is — you guessed it — taking flight. As a result, business for a handful of budget airlines born during the pandemic, such as Avelo and Breeze Airways, is growing at a rapid pace.
The Circle of Mile-High Life
Few would have predicted it, but a pandemic that saw the near-total collapse of air travel created the perfect conditions for the rise of new airlines. While the big four — Delta, United, American, and Southwest — have suffered billions in losses, competitors born yesterday have found the perfect moment to claim their niche, servicing the small markets and minor routes abandoned in 2020 by the big guns.

Now, major airlines are facing another crisis, as high demand and the twin forces of inflation — the rising cost of fuel and labor — sent prices up a record 18% from March to April, according to the Consumer Price Index. Capitalizing on certain laws of the airline lifecycle that keep costs cheap, the budget players now command the perfect conditions for takeoff:
Discount carriers tend to fly newer planes, and newer planes typically come with the luxury of less maintenance — which in turn leads to lower labor rates, resulting in budget flyers’ two favorite words: lower airfares.
The strategy “is a play we’ve seen before,” Adam Gordon, managing director and airline lead at Boston Consulting Group, told Axios on Sunday. “As [airlines] mature, their labor costs tend to rise, the aircraft need more maintenance, and it all gets more complex. That creates space for new players to come in beneath them.”
Consumer Reports: Budget airlines aren’t only saving on repair labor costs. Breeze founder David Neeleman, who employed the same major airline-undercutting tactics when he founded JetBlue in 2000, has steered Breeze’s customer service department to take a “tech-first” approach. That means cutting the customer-service phone line in favor of online text-based chats — where agents attend to multiple disgruntled flyers at the same time. Poor reviews on Facebook and a USA Today trend piece from January show some consumers aren’t too happy with the more hands-off approach. Then again, a little texting thumb could be a price many might be willing to pay for cheap cross-country airfares.
Extra Upside
CEO pay packages in 2021 set a record high for the sixth straight year.
Turks and Caicos is using whale-watching tourists to help protect endangered humpbacks.
The future of vision care is… VR headsets? Trust us, we were just as surprised as you – until we read up on Retina Technologies. Their OcuVue™ digital vision screening platform is making affordable (and easy) vision exams available to anyone, anywhere. Their latest fundraising round is live on StartEngine now, so invest while you still can right here.*

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Written by Sean Craig and Brian Boyle.
Disclaimer
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